The College Football Playoff Selection Committee dropped its third set of 2025 rankings on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, and the shockwaves are still rippling through college football. Ohio State Buckeyes stayed at No. 1, Indiana Hoosiers clung to No. 2, and Texas A&M Aggies held firm at No. 3 — but the real story wasn’t who stayed up. It was who fell. Alabama Crimson Tide, once a lock for the final four, tumbled six spots to No. 10 after a 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma Sooners on November 15. That defeat didn’t just cost them momentum — it may have cost them a playoff berth.
Head-to-Head Trumps Resume
The Selection Committee made it clear: wins matter more than résumés. Oklahoma moved up three spots to No. 8, leapfrogging Alabama despite having fewer top-25 wins. Alabama has four. Oklahoma has one — against Alabama. That’s all it took. The committee’s statement didn’t mince words: "Head-to-head results carry significant weight, especially when teams are otherwise comparable." It’s a brutal truth for the Crimson Tide, whose four wins over ranked opponents now feel like empty calories. Meanwhile, Notre Dame Fighting Irish clung to No. 9 with just one top-25 win — but two close losses to ranked teams (Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M) gave them the edge over Alabama’s more impressive but ultimately hollow resume.Georgia’s Rise and Texas’s Fall
The Georgia Bulldogs surged to No. 4 after dismantling Texas Longhorns 35-10 on November 15. That win didn’t just vault Georgia — it shattered Texas’s playoff dreams. The Longhorns, once projected as a top-5 team, collapsed seven spots to No. 17. Their 7-3 record now looks like a trapdoor. Even a win in their final game against Texas Tech won’t be enough. The math is brutal: at No. 17, they’d need a perfect finish, a top-10 upset, and a miracle from the committee. It’s not happening.Up the ladder, Texas Tech Red Raiders climbed to No. 5, Ole Miss Rebels to No. 6, and Oregon Ducks held at No. 7. The top eight now look like a who’s who of the season’s most dramatic turnarounds. But the real chaos is below.
ACC Chaos and Duke’s Exit
The Atlantic Coast Conference is a mess. No team has separated itself. Virginia Cavaliers (No. 19) and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (No. 16) are the conference’s last hopes — but neither has a signature win. Duke Blue Devils were explicitly ruled out by the committee: "knocked out of playoff contention entirely," they said. With losses to unranked teams and no path to the ACC title game, Duke’s season is over. The ACC? Still wide open. No team has beaten two top-10 opponents. No team has a clean slate. And with conference championship week just two weeks away, the conference might not even send a representative to the playoff.Group of Five’s Surprising Anchor
The Tulane Green Wave are the highest-ranked Group of Five team at No. 12 — but the choice is controversial. They lost by 22 points to UTSA Roadrunners in October. Meanwhile, North Texas Mean Green beat UTSA by 38 points — but they’re unranked. The committee cited Tulane’s strength of schedule and late-season wins over South Florida Bulls and SMU Mustangs as justification. Analysts are skeptical. "They’re the best of a bad lot," said one former committee member. "But they’re not a top-12 team by any objective standard." Still, Tulane will likely get the Group of Five’s automatic bid — and a first-round matchup against the ACC champ, assuming someone emerges.
What’s Next? The Final Push
The next rankings drop on Tuesday, November 25, 2025 — right after the final week of regular-season games. That’s when the real drama begins. Ohio State hosts Michigan Wolverines (No. 18) in what could be a playoff-deciding game. Indiana faces Purdue Boilermakers in a potential trap game. Texas A&M travels to LSU Tigers, who are 9-1 and hungry. One slip, and the entire top four could shift.Meanwhile, Alabama’s season hinges on winning out — and hoping for chaos. They need Georgia to lose, Notre Dame to stumble, and Oklahoma to falter. That’s a lot to ask. Their final game against Auburn Tigers on November 29 might be their last chance to prove they belong.
Final Bracket Projection
Based on the November 18 rankings, the projected playoff bracket looks like this:- Seed 1: Ohio State Buckeyes (bye)
- Seed 2: Indiana Hoosiers (bye)
- Seed 3: Texas A&M Aggies (bye)
- Seed 4: Georgia Bulldogs (bye)
- Seed 5: Texas Tech Red Raiders (host No. 12)
- Seed 6: Ole Miss Rebels (host No. 11)
- Seed 7: Oregon Ducks (host No. 10)
- Seed 8: Oklahoma Sooners (host No. 9)
- Seed 9: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Seed 10: Alabama Crimson Tide
- Seed 11: BYU Cougars
- Seed 12: Tulane Green Wave
The final rankings, which lock in the four playoff teams, will be announced Sunday, December 7, 2025 — one day after the conference championship games on December 6. One loss, one upset, one questionable committee call — and the whole thing changes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Oklahoma ranked above Alabama despite having fewer top-25 wins?
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee prioritizes head-to-head results over overall resume when teams are close. Oklahoma defeated Alabama 23-21 on November 15, and that single win outweighed Alabama’s four victories over ranked opponents. The committee stated that direct competition carries "significant weight," especially in tight races where resumes are otherwise similar.
Can Alabama still make the playoff?
It’s mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely. Alabama would need to win out, including their final game against Auburn, and hope for at least two of the top four teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia) to lose. They’d also need Notre Dame or Oklahoma to stumble. Even then, the committee’s preference for head-to-head wins makes Alabama’s path nearly impossible.
Why is Tulane ranked higher than North Texas, even though North Texas beat UTSA by 38 points?
The committee values schedule strength and late-season momentum. Tulane beat two ranked Group of Five teams (SMU and South Florida) in November, while North Texas lost to South Florida by 27 points and only beat UTSA after Tulane had already been ranked. Tulane’s win over SMU was also on the road, adding to its resume. North Texas’s 38-point win came after a loss to a weaker team, making it look like a bounce-back rather than a statement.
Who has the best shot in the ACC?
Virginia Cavaliers (No. 19) and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (No. 16) are the ACC’s best remaining chances, but neither has a signature win. Virginia’s remaining schedule includes a tough game against Miami, while Georgia Tech must beat Georgia and win the ACC title game. Neither team has beaten a top-10 opponent, making an at-large bid nearly impossible unless the playoff field collapses.
What does the drop to No. 17 mean for Texas Longhorns?
Texas’s playoff hopes are effectively dead. At No. 17, they’d need to win their final game, hope for four top-12 teams to lose, and convince the committee they’re better than teams with better resumes. Their 35-10 loss to Georgia exposed defensive flaws and shattered their momentum. Even a 10-3 record won’t be enough without a conference title — and the Longhorns aren’t even in the Big 12 title race anymore.
When will we know the final playoff teams?
The final College Football Playoff rankings will be announced on Sunday, December 7, 2025, after all conference championship games are played on Saturday, December 6. The committee will consider final records, head-to-head results, strength of schedule, and conference championships before locking in the four teams that will compete for the national title.
